What future holds for Afghanistan?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has diverted global attention from Afghanistan, and the Taliban government is left to fend for itself. There is also a general fatigue among major powers, especially the US, about Afghanistan. It had been directly engaged militarily in the country for nearly twenty years from October 2001 to August 30, 2021. It took a heavy toll on American lives, and the financial cost of the war was staggering. According to the figures available, US servicemen killed in Afghanistan were 2,448 and 3,846 those who were employed as US contractors. The Afghan military's losses were 66,000 men in uniform and 46,000 civilians had lost their lives in the conflict and a staggering number wounded and disabled during this period, according to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. As of April 2021, more than 71,000 Afghan and Pakistani civilians are estimated to have died as a direct result of the war. Despite the support provided to the Ghani government, the Taliban clearly emerged militarily as the winner and established their writ over the whole of Afghanistan.

A quick recall of these events was to bring into focus to what extent Afghanistan has suffered and regrettably continues to do so. The intransigence of Taliban leadership not to show any flexibility in their extremely conservative policies, particularly in respect of women, has resulted in inviting a host of sanctions from the US and the EU which bars them from receiving aid. Afghanistan today is politically isolated, economically the government is sanctioned and not officially recognised even by its immediate neighbours including Pakistan and China. Although China and Pakistan would like to assist Afghanistan but security and political issues are coming in the way of their extending greater level of cooperation. Afghanistan is also burdened with huge refugee and drug problems. These are aggravated due to its dismal state of economy and international isolation. Trade prospects between Afghanistan and Pakistan and neighbouring countries will only pick up when Afghanistan economy stabilises. About 60 per cent of the Afghan population faces the prospect of facing severe food shortages that could result in mass hunger and deprivation.

But the Taliban leadership's response has been of defiance with no let-up on any of their strict Islamic code of conduct. They have reconciled to being isolated and maintaining minimum contact with the outside world. It appears as...