US may leave but Afghan war is unlikely to end.

Byline: Dr Moonis Ahmar

A comprehensive agreement with the US by September 1, as wished by Secretary of State Pompeo, may be a distant reality. PHOTO: FILE The writer is former Dean Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Karachi and can be reached at amoonis@hotmail.com

'We have reached an agreement on 80% of the issues. The remaining 20% involves a timeline regarding withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan and one other issue. We remain optimistic. We hope to clinch an agreement in this round of talks,' said Sohail Shaheen, the Taliban's Chief Spokesperson.

Before holding the eight rounds of talks in Doha with the US Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad, the Taliban leadership made it clear that there was no question of holding intra-Afghan talks, including with the 'illegal Kabul regime', unless an agreement is reached with the US on the withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan. Unlike the USSR, which had around 100,000 soldiers in Afghanistan during the 80's, the US currently has 14,000 combat troops. In its 18 years of military presence in Afghanistan, the US has lost around 2,400 forces unlike the Soviet casualties of 10,000 in 10 years. The American physical casualties in Afghanistan are not even comparable with its losses of 50,000 during the Vietnam War (1955-1975). Yet, the Trump administration wants America to safely exit from Afghanistan after spending approximately $1 trillion in its longest war.

Taliban's determination to continue the war against foreign forces is questionable because a significant opposition against Trump's ostensible exit strategy in Afghanistan comes from the American Department of Defense and the Congress. Both view the Taliban with suspicion, particularly its resolve to re-establish the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Their refusal to accept the Afghan Constitution and join a political process is a dangerous reality. If the Taliban are appeased and allowed to capture power, it will certainly lead to a fresh outbreak of civil war in Afghanistan with lethal repercussions for the region.

While the US exit from Afghanistan is problematic because of its deep-rooted suspicions of the Taliban, the choices for the Kabul regime are limited. Since 2001, Afghanistan has passed through a democratic transition, and the country is governed by an elected President and Assembly - despite the prevailing violence and the authoritarian nature of society. Before the US-led invasion of Afghanistan...