The China/Saudi Arabia/Iran Agreement.

After four days of negotiations in Beijing, an agreeAment has been reached between Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic ties. While reactions from pundits and politicians have ranged from euphoria to cyniAcism to outright hostility, reality dictates that cautious optimism is the better course. Here are a few obserAvations on what just happened and why, and what needs to happen next:

It's significant that China brought the parties togethAer. For domestic political reasons, the US could not and would not play that role, and the diplomatic vacuum opened the door for Beijing. The stage was set with US miscues in the region, beginning with the Bush administraAtion's disastrous war in Iraq, the Obama administration's short-sighted approach to the Iran nuclear deal, and the Trump adAministration's unpredictable actions. American hubris, erratic behaviour, and lack of concern for allies' needs led one Arab inAtellectual to describe the past two decades of US policy as 'a dizAzying roller coaster ride and we want to get off.'

No longer confident of US support, some Arab states drew closer to China and Russia and even began inching their way toward normalising relations with Iran. UAE restored diploAmatic ties and Saudi Arabia began exploratory meetings in Baghdad with Iranian counterparts. It fell to China, which has been expanding economic ties with both Iran and Arab Gulf countries, to close the deal by playing the needed diplomatic role to facilitate an agreement. The China/Saudi Arabia/Iran pact not only envisions restored diplomatic ties, non-interAvention, and respect for sovereignty but also sets the stage for a regional economic summit later this year.

Recent polling across the Middle East demonstrates China's enhanced role at the expense of the US. While still considered a more powerful ally, the US is increasingly viewed as erratAic and unreliable. Strong majorities in most Arab countries see China as the emergent power that will eclipse the US in the next 20 years. We've sold Arab states weapons, invested heavily in the region, and, at times, provided needed security, but we've also been demeaning and demanding and too often failed to address the concerns of Arab regional partners. As Saudi Arabian leaders have told US presidents going back to Bush: 'If you insist on acting...