Method to the madness in Gaza.

Hamas missed the commemorative day of the 1973 Yom Kippur war between Arab states and Israel only by a few hours. October 6th stands out as a red-letter day for many in Arab states of Egypt, Syria and Jordan for their surprise attack on Israel winning them back some areas, if not all - including the Sinai desert - lost to Israel in its moment of glory in 1967. A similar surprise, this time by Hamas, which nominally controls Gaza, the Palestinian enclave in the west, had the Israelis reeling trying to catch up with a simultaneous attack on multiple Israeli military and intelligence complexes. That Hamas had integrated surveillance and drone technologies with kinetic operations, giving them results unexpected by a militia against one of the most reputed militaries in the world shocked one and all including Israel.

There are numerous theories making rounds from the most skeptical to the most outlandish, yet they feed into what can be termed a trigger to a possibly most transformative moments in middle eastern politics. Consider some of the statements that have emerged from Arab capitals: Iranian President Raisi in one-off got on the phone with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Sultan, suggesting serious concern in saving the conflict to widen beyond Gaza fearing retribution - Iran was the prime suspect in urging Hamas to initiate the October surprise. Saudi Arabia held off any further communication and interaction on recognising Israel in what was being widely termed the 'deal of the century' brokered under Biden as his personal moment of glory enabling Israel 'comprehensive peace' and increased influence in minding US interests in a region which the US now wishes to outsource.

The Saudi statement was illuminating - 'suspending contact till fighting stops', which means negotiations will begin soon after the war in Gaza is over. Clearly, the Gazans would have been decimated and crushed by then; Israelis having achieved its objectives of neutralising Hamas and ethnically lightened the load of just too many Palestinians in Gaza - it is called genocide. Americans asked China to tell the Iranians to keep Hezbollah at bay. Rest have generally remained mute, giving preference to their primary interests dominated by being in the good books of the United States. Israelis also attacked Syria's two main airbases just in case Syrian imagination went wilder than their capacity and to preclude Iranian supplies to Hamas. Netanyahu pronounced that a longer...