India and China - the global calculus.

The Ladakh crisis has not only exposed India's lacking as an aggressive competitor through its fidgety response in Ladakh, but more than that it has exposed the shallow depth of India's alliance in the Quad (Australia-India-Japan-US) against China. Yet for those who have been tracking India, it is a surprise that India was so unprepared and heedless.

Historically, the two countries seem to have been on a two-prong trajectory; one of a Hindi-Chini-Bhai-Bhai and the idea of Chindia, a partnership in which interdependence would be so strong, that cooperation and peace would be inevitable; and the other of excessive competition in border deployments and control of international waters. Indeed, bilateral trade between China and India touched $89.6 billion in 2017-18, making China India's second biggest trade partner, yet killing the idea of 'more globalisation, less war', the two states remain wary of an attack from the other.

China's rejection of the McMahon Line has left several pockets along the border that both states contest. In 1960, Nehru and Zhou Enlai attempted to settle the boundary dispute, but the talks failed, ultimately escalating into the 1962 Sino-Indian War of 1962. Later there were major incidents in the Sikkim area, Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, mostly at the same points where China is making incursions in the current stand-off.

Especially in Arunachal Pradesh, where Indian buildup is scarce and most outposts are temporary and only accessible on foot. And representatives have been bringing up the matter of increasing Chinese ingress and buildup, several miles inside the state for decades now, in the Lok Sabha, but only to deaf ears. And it seems that the government has no estimate on how much area is actually occupied by the Chinese in Arunachal.

This means that China's ingress and acclamation has been ongoing over decades and must not have been a surprise! India's joining the US as a strategic ally since 2005 has generated further fears of encirclement in China. The US sees India as a partner that would join it in obstructing maritime shipping lanes originating from the South China Sea. With a staggering military budget of $65.86 billion for 2020, India is constantly increasing its capability in air and naval power. Though far behind in technological superiority from the Chinese and unmatched with China's nuclear arsenal, India's ambitious maritime policy aims to control the Bay of Bengal and the Malacca Strait through its...