What will end first: world or virus?

Byline: Gharidah Farooqi

The 20th deadly pandemic - recorded in the human history: in the year 2020 has gripped the entire civilisation in horror, consternation and trepidation less known before to the younger generation. Novel Corona Virus, medically termed as COVID-19, has killed 6,069 lives worldwide [up till now] merely in four months since its outbreak in China in December last year. With this pace it has far surpassed two previous pandemics of the same Coronavirus category - MERS Coronavirus (since 2015 to present) which spread from bats and camels and has so far killed 850 people worldwide and SARS Coronavirus (from 2002 - 2003) spreading from bats and civets which killed 770 worldwide.

COVID-19 is closely getting in comparison to Ebolavirus in severity and death toll, which killed 11,000 humans in two years. Swine Flu H1N1 virus in 2009 - 2010 killed 2,00,000 people worldwide. Hong Kong Flu H3N2 virus killed one million people from 1968 - 1970. Asian Flu H2N2 killed 1.1 Million people in a year from 1957 - 1958. The worst among the category, Spanish Flu H1N1 virus killed forty to fifty million humans worldwide in 1918 - 1919. The first globally recognised pandemic Cholera killed one million people worldwide between 1817-1923. To date, the worst pandemic known and recorded in human history was in 1347 - 1351, known as Black Death, which killed two hundred million people worldwide in five years.

A detailed study of pandemics reveals the true-to-type trend of disease lasting a year to three with the maximum onslaught in the first nine to twelve months with an upside of a gradual reduction in death rate. A growing understanding of the disease, along with improvements in the healthcare sector also contributes effectively to attenuating the pandemic footprint. However, with COVID-19 being recent and new hence unpredictable to humankind with least preparations despite suffering at the hands of similar two categories previously; no one can say for sure if and when the vaccine would be ready. But pandemics have occurred before, and they do pass as they become contained over time.

One can safely say, the world should brace itself for COVID-19 for the next five to six months at least. With time, while vaccine development efforts would be ongoing at a rush, the disease discernment combined with herd immunity might stand in the way of the number of fatalities. A recent article in Guardian heralded the glad tiding of the prospect of a COVID-19...