What Israel, Hamas, and the USA should have known.

Looking at the unfolding horror in Gaza, I am reminded of two important lessons that should have been heeded by Hamas, Israel, and the USA.

The first came from the late Ibrahim Abu Lughod, the brilliant Palestinian American historian. He always cautioned never to make judgements based on the day's headlines, because like the ocean's tides or waves, they come in and go out. If we are driven by them, we are left flailing about without being grounded in reality. Rather, we should focus on the deep currents that shape the direction of events.

Using that lesson, I scoff at the 'pundits' who insist that after this Gaza War nothing will ever be the same again. No doubt, some things will be different, but when the dust settles, no matter how much damage Israel is able to inflict on Hamas, the Palestinian people, and Gaza, too many constants will remain.

In the first place, Palestinians will still be under an oppressive occupation, chafing at the way Israel covets their land and denies them freedom. Hamas may be defeated, but out of the anger and trauma caused by this massive display of Israeli might, the seeds are being planted for Hamas 2.0 or something worse. At the same time, the already diminished Palestinian Authority will have become even more irrelevant and Palestinians, as they have been since the tragic end of Yasser Arafat, will be operating without a leadership that could actually inspire them. That unfortunately will not change.

Israel also will not change. As it emerges from its trauma, its politics will not be more moderate. There may be less of a push for radical changes in the judiciary and fewer accommodations made for the ultra-Orthodox, but Netanyahu's new/old partner, Benny Gantz, is no less hardline on the Palestinian issue. In fact, Gantz's past critique of Netanyahu was that he hadn't 'finished off' Hamas in the last Gaza war.

Sadly, nor will anything change on the US front. While public opinion, especially among Democrats, continues to be increasingly critical of Israel (and will most likely become more critical after Israel finishes bombing Gaza), the pro-Israel lobby will continue to intimidate elected officials in both parties. At some point, the Biden Administration may decide that Israel has gone too far with its murderous assault and press it to halt the violence, but we shouldn't expect the USA to apply the kind of pressure needed to force an end to the occupation or justice for Palestinians.

The bottom line is that...