Unraveling the Iran-Taliban Rivalry and Geopolitical Implications.

Byline: Muhammad Imad Abbas

On 27th May, a severe border clash erupted between the security forces of Iran and the Taliban, resulting in the unfortunate demise of two Iranian soldiers and causing injuries to one Taliban member, as reported by the IRNA news agency. Subsequently, it was noted that the clash involved the use of semi and light weapons and artillery. In response to this incident, KabulNow reported that Iran retaliated by reducing the electricity supply to Afghanistan's Herat province, posing a significant threat to essential services such as hospitals, businesses, and schools.

The root cause of the sudden confrontation has been attributed to a longstanding water dispute that has persisted over the past few years. Despite establishing a short-term truce between the two parties, it appears unlikely to endure for an extended period due to their underlying structural and ideological hostilities.

Certain sources indicate that the 217th Taliban army corps, known as "Omari," has been relocated from Panjshir to adjacent border regions. This relocation vividly illustrates the gravity and inclination of the current situation. Following their triumph in two wars against formidable adversaries of the era, namely the USSR and the US-led allies, the Taliban harbor the conviction that they can readily vanquish the Iranian forces with little resistance.

This belief seems to stem from their observation of the considerable political and economic sanctions imposed on Iran, which have inflicted significant wounds upon the nation. Historically, Iran has consistently provided support to the Northern Alliance, led by Ahmed Shah Masood, the arch-rival of the Taliban. This support can be attributed to concerns regarding the potential threat posed to the Shia population residing in the Hazara district. The apprehension stems from the Taliban's adherence to strict and orthodox Salafist views, which may jeopardize the religious practices and security of the Shia community. The sudden resolution of the border dispute between the Taliban and Iran has brought forth two significant structural issues.

The first issue pertains to the refugee crisis. Owing to the prolonged conflicts in Afghanistan, it is estimated that Iran currently shelters millions of Taliban refugees. In recent years, Iran has been confronted with profound political and economic challenges, exacerbating the situation due to stringent imposed restrictions. This has resulted in significant...