Troubling projections.

THE alarm bells are ringing at a deafening pitch as the latest Covid-19 projections for Pakistan come to light. Based on the rapidly rising rate of infections and daily deaths in the second week of June, the data tells a harrowing story. Confirmed coronavirus cases in the country are galloping towards the 150,000 mark - a trajectory which federal minister Asad Umar has warned may result in doubling the number of cases by the end of the month, with up to 1.2m by end July. The government's projections are indeed worrisome. Yet, figures revealed by an Imperial College London simulation are even more startling, as they model the worst-case scenarios for hundreds of countries: the UK data simulates that, in the extreme event that no action is taken to curb the spread, 2.2m people could die of Covid-19 in Pakistan between February 2020 and June 2021. The same analysis suggests that, with interventions and mitigation, deaths could be lowered by at least 40pc.

This data is not a prediction, but it clearly points to how critical a decisive, data-led mitigation strategy is in determining which path Pakistan takes. The government has repeated appeals for the public to wear face masks, practice distancing and understand the gravity of the crisis. Numerous times, the term 'smart lockdown' has been invoked to show how authorities will react to Covid-19 transmissions by sealing virus hotspot localities. More recently, and for the first time, an ambitious target of 100,000 daily tests - which is four times more than the number of daily tests being conducted at present - has also...