The lockdown dilemma.

Byline: Sakib Sherani

THE federal government has decided to substantially ease the national lockdown imposed to suppress the outbreak of Covid-19. This is easily among the most difficult, consequential as well as contentious decisions any government has had to take in Pakistan's recent history.

Governments around the world, including the most developed ones, have struggled to make timely (as well as even the right) decisions with regard to the complex issues thrown up by the Covid-19 pandemic. At the heart of the complexity are social choice questions surrounding the 'lives versus livelihoods' debate. In a nutshell, two important ones are inter alia:

1) Should the economic livelihood and generational prosperity of a younger, healthier cohort within society be sacrificed to protect the remaining years of a relatively smaller (though still sizeable in many countries) older cohort - one that may be afflicted by co-morbidities?

2) With a low population-wide case mortality rate, and the possibility of 'herd immunity' being developed with exposure of the broader population over time, does shutting down the entire economy for an extended period of time to suppress the virus make sense, especially given the economic structure and realities that face millions (informal workers/daily wage earners in particular)?

Flawed reasoning and muddled maths are informing government action.

Arriving at clear-cut decisions based on scientific 'evidence' is clouded by the added complexity provided by the novelty of this strain of coronavirus, where some of the underlying assumptions in the arguments are far from settled (such as the questions of herd immunity or lower susceptibility of the younger population).

In Pakistan, the federal government has generally muddled along in its response since late February, with its lack of clarity reflected in mixed messaging (and weak enforcement) viz the lockdown. As the economic costs and consequences mount in magnitude and significance, the government is finally at the end of its tether, and is relying on a combination of genuine humanitarian concern and untenable logic (mixed with muddled maths) to justify its predisposition to a partial, short duration lockdown.

The national coordinator responsible for leading the government response has compared the current mortality rate from Covid-19 to deaths from road accidents each year, and arrived at the conclusion that since the latter kill more Pakistanis each year and yet road...