Shifting Power.

Global geopolitics is in a state of massive flux. The US is now increasingly perceived as a power in decline. Its fleeting moment of unipolar ascendancy is long vorbei andis being rapidly replaced by a bi-multipolar world. New centresand communities of power are crystallisingat the global, regional, and sub-regional levels.The economic strength of nations, as opposed to brute military force, is now defining the power calculus of the world. Geo-economics is taking precedence over geostrategic imperatives. Consequently, multipolarity and multi-alignment are fast becoming the new normals of geopolitics.

At the global level, China and Russia continue to pose multidimensional challenges to the US-led West.At the regional level, middle and smaller powers are breaking free of the stranglehold of erstwhile colonial and other masters and pursuing independent policies. They seek multi-alignment regardless of the degree of animosity between the major global powers.

Flush with enormous earnings from the export of fossil fuels, the Gulf Arab states have now startedasserting themselves stronglyin regional and extra-regional affairs. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the UAE have taken up multi-alignment in a very calculated manner.Pragmatism, pro-activism and the focused pursuit of national interests are the hallmarks of their latest policies.At the global level, they are now interacting with the US, China and Russia simultaneously.At the geopolitical level, KSA is engaging the US on the recognition of Israel and is seekinga vibrant security and defence arrangement with it. It engages China continuously on the geoeconomic front fostering intercontinental and regional connectivity and economic interdependence;in other words, promoting the BRI. Russia continues to dominate OPEC+ tomanage and manipulate the production of oil and thus its international prices. This directly impacts the global economy andgivesit substantial geopolitical leverage too.All three relationships raise theirstature and clout in the geopolitical and geo-economic domains.At the extra-regional level, the KSA and UAE have de-hyphenated their relationships with both Pakistan and India. They are now managing mutually beneficial ties, on independent tracks, with both.

President Joe Biden faces a very tough re-election next year. A KSA-Israel rapprochement at the regional level leading to a Jew-Muslim reconciliation at the global level would be an enormous feather in his cap. He could...