Shifting politics.

Byline: Maleeha Lodhi

IT is a measure of the volatility of Pakistani politics that the momentum can suddenly shift between rival political forces. Recent developments have helped to revive the political fortunes of the opposition alliance while the PTI government's credibility has been shaken and it has been put on the defensive. This however may be transient as dynamics can shift again to advantage the government if it makes the gains it is expecting in the upcoming Senate election and secures control of the upper house. The unopposed election of its Senate candidates from Punjab is an early indication.

But for now, the outcome of several by-elections has given a fillip to the opposition with the government showing visible signs of nervousness. Just a few weeks ago PDM seemed to run out of steam, raising questions about whether it could evolve a unified response to mount pressure on the government. Differences between the alliance's two major parties on how to proceed even generated doubts about PDM's future.

This receded into the background as by-elections to several provincial and National Assembly seats approached, with PML-N and PPP focusing their political energies to winning seats they held before. That they managed to do. Given that by-elections usually swing in the government's favour, PML-N's victory in the Nowshera seat - previously held by PTI - marked a significant setback for the ruling party.

Violence and controversy over ballot fraud in the Sialkot NA by-election delivered a bigger blow to the government's credibility. PTI leaders claimed to have won in NA-75. But the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) refused to announce the result and casting doubt on election returns from several polling stations ordered an inquiry.

Beyond PTI's fault lines the more consequential question is credibility of future elections.

Then, in another setback to the government, it nullified the result, declaring that the poll had not been held in a 'fair and transparent' manner and announced re-election in the entire constituency. The government's decision to challenge this was not only ill-advised but also exposed its lack of self-confidence.

Another blow for the government was ECP's decision to ask for the suspension and transfer of several district officials and police officers. Observing that chaos spread throughout the constituency, it also summoned the Punjab chief secretary and IGP to explain their dereliction of duty on election day. This...