Russia in 2021: Will the Economy Recover?

Byline: S. Kamal Hayder Kazmi

Early last year, Russia quietly dropped its long-standing target to become one of the world's five largest economies.

The move came as part of a sweeping reset of more than 100 socioeconomic goals President Vladimir Putin had wanted to hit by 2024. Citing the unprecedented economic circumstances, authorities said 2030 was now a more realistic deadline for the ambitious agenda. Some goals, like the top-five target, were ditched altogether.

The irony, analysts said, is that 2020 could be the first ever year that Russia comes close to actually breaking into the top 5- at least when measured on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, which takes into account differences in living standards.

That is because by macroeconomic standards, Russia's $1.5 trillion economy weathered the first year of the coronavirus crisis better than almost...