A road to nowhere?

Following the Bharatiya JanaAta Party's (BJP) decision to unilaterally revoke Kashmir's semi-autonomous status in August 2019, Pakistan downgradAed diplomatic ties with InAdia and suspended bilaterAal trade. However, despite tensions, both sides quietAly engaged in backdoor diAplomacy at the National SeAcurity Advisors' level, which paved the way for the restoAration of the Line of Control (LOC) ceasefire in February 2021. Since its restoration, the LOC truce has held and the ceasefire violations have deAclined from 5,100 in 2020 to zero in 2021. Likewise, the backchannel efAforts to restore bilateral trade also made headway. In March 2021, ImAran Khan's government agreed to reAsume the import of cotton and sugAar from India but then backtracked fearing public backlash.

When Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif was sworn in after Khan's removal in a parliamentary vote of no-confidence in April, he exApressed the desire of forging 'perAmanent peace' with India. IndiAan Prime Minister Narendra Modi was one of the first leaders to felicAitate Sharif on becoming the prime minister. Separately, Pakistan's ForAeign Minister Bilawal Bhutto was also willing to engage so long as InAdia showed 'sincerity of purpose.' However, the Indo-Pak backchannel has hit a dead-end for two reasons. First, the Pakistan Army's ongoing leadership transition, prevailing poAlitical uncertainty in the country, and general elections which are due in 2023. Second, both sides are unAwilling to show flexibility in their maximalist positions. For instance, Pakistan wants India to take some steps to reverse the August 2019 acAtions in Kashmir, while Delhi wants Islamabad to resume trade first.

India also tried to further harden its position on Kashmir by planning the September 2023 G20 Summit in Srinagar but then backtracked due to the unwillingness of some foreign leaders to participate. The Indian move did not go down well with PakAistan. The resultant friction preventAed the Indian and Pakistani foreign ministers from interacting with each other on the sidelines of the ShangAhai Cooperation Organization sumAmit held in Tashkent in September.

Though the India-Pakistan backAchannel negotiations have hit a dead end, Track-II diplomacy between both sides is continuing. In 2022, retired Indian and Pakistani diploAmats, former security personnel, and intelligence officials met four times for Track-II talks in Bangkok, MusAcat, and London. The last round of the India-Pakistan Track-II...