Risk of a perfect storm.

POST-PUNJAB by-election developments have injected more volatility into an already fraught and vexed political situation. This has raised growing concerns about the fate of a precarious economy in the face of more political turmoil that seems to lie ahead.

PTI's stunning electoral victory was obviously consequential for the survival of the PML-N-led Punjab government. But political fortunes reversed in just a few days. In the dramatic events and wheeling and dealing that followed, the run-off election for the provincial chief minister took place on a day of surprises.

Although PTI and its ally PML-Q enjoyed a majority in the House an unexpected turn of events saw PML-Q president Chaudhry Shujaat declare he would not support his cousin, Pervaiz Elahi as Imran Khan's candidate. He instructed party legislators to vote instead for Hamza Shehbaz and conveyed this decision to the deputy Speaker, who then rejected their votes cast for Elahi. This ensured a narrow win for Hamza. But instead of ending the Punjab crisis this outcome is likely to aggravate it. With Khan calling foul, the deputy Speaker's ruling has been challenged in the Supreme Court while PTI has called for public protests against its 'stolen mandate'. The Supreme Court may well rule against the deputy Speaker's action.

Meanwhile, the coalition government at the centre has made it apparent it will continue in office until parliament completes its term in August 2023. But the question is how tenable this is, especially with the situation in Punjab mired in confusion.

Editorial: The decision to stay

More importantly, can the fragile economy withstand what promises to be a period of more political turbulence and confrontation between the coalition government and PTI?

Imran Khan will continue to mount pressure on the government to hold immediate general elections. Towards this end, he is continuing to castigate the establishment on the unsubstantiated ground of siding with his political opponents. He also accuses the Election Commission of Pakistan of bias and has repeatedly demanded the chief election commissioner (CEC) - who holds a constitutional post - should resign. This despite his party's decisive win in the by-elections in which it polled 47 per cent of the popular vote against 40pc for PML-N. Khan cast his party's electoral success as the 'defeat' of both the establishment and ECP that he accused, without evidence, of trying to foil his victory.

Prevailing in the power game...