Review of oil demand and supply in Pakistan.

Byline: S. KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI

International experts identified that the world oil demand growth forecast for 2022 remains equal to last month's assessment at 2.5 mb/d. The OECD demand in 4Q22 was adjusted downward to reflect the latest fats but non-OECD demand in 4Q22 was revised higher because of improvements in economic activity in some states and a slight recovery in oil demand in China after the lifting of its zero-Covid-19 strategy.

Pakistan: Import Payments By Petroleum Groups (Thousand US Dollar)

##Jul-Jun###Jan###Jan(P)###Jul-Jan

Petroleum Group###Dec(R)FY23

##FY21###FY22###FY22###FY23###FY22###FY23 P

Petroleum Products###4,640,569 10,296,177 661,981###513,421###578,111###5,116,841###5,895,716

Petroleum Crude###3,189,888 4,601,532###182,657###445,322###341,508###2,650,750###3,069,045

Natural Gas, Liquified###1,776,145 3,681,125###244,927###283,306###318,766###1,835,881###2,264,709

Petroleum Gas, Liquified 133,556###163,571###18,810###22,584###22,050###75,445###96,354

Others###6,908###749###26###14###A###614###668

For 2023 the experts also identified that world oil demand growth is adjusted slightly upwards by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to rise by approximately 0.4 mb/d and non-OECD at about 2.0 mb/d. Non-OPEC liquids supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d in 2022, largely unchanged from the last assessment.

Downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia were mainly offset by upward revisions to liquids production in Russia. It is also identified that the main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are seen to be the US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest falls are expected from Norway and Thailand.

For 2023, non-OPEC liquids production growth is revised slightly down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The Main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while falls are forecast in Russia and Mexico.

Nevertheless, large uncertainties remain over the impact of ongoing geopolitical developments, also US shale output in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to an average of 5.39 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to an average of 5.44 mb/d in 2023.

According to the sources, OPEC-13 crude oil production in January declined by 49 tb/d m-o-m to an average of 28.88 mb/d in developing countries...