RED ZONE FILESL: The great gamble?

Byline: Fahd Husain

All is well as well can be in an unwell way. The debate over lockdowns is almost dead. With the final rites being performed momentarily, Pakistan will soon be open for business. And for Covid-19. Easing restrictions and opening up economic activity under the overhang of the virus was a difficult decision taken easily.

Why easily?

Here's where the decision-making dynamics within the current power matrix played themselves out in the Red Zone. In the battle against coronavirus, the decision-making matrix has evolved over the weeks and has now crystallised into a definitive shape. This is important in the context of the debate over lockdowns because if the debate is now settled - which it appears to be - the decision has been taken by all key stakeholders within this decision-making matrix and not just by an individual.

The most important individual, of course, is Prime Minister Imran Khan. He has been against the concept of a lockdown from the initial corona days. How did he come to oppose the concept of a lockdown? There are many explanations. Most of them, however, have one thing in common: the key role of at least one cabinet member who influenced the prime minister's mind on lockdowns and why they were not that important for Pakistan. Even today there are many within the higher echelons of the ruling party who are against easing the lockdown so early but very few - perhaps almost none - are interested in voicing their opinion knowing that the prime minister has made up his mind.

But apparently it's not just his mind that is made up. The National Command and Operations Centre (NCOC) has also reached a similar conclusion. The NCOC is headed by Planning Minister Asad Umar and he echoes the sentiments of the prime minister on lockdowns. The NCOC, however, is not the brainchild of the PTI government. In the early corona days when the government appeared oblivious to the threat of the virus and was in fact playing it down, powerful quarters decided they needed to get the action moving before it was too late. The NCOC was formed, staffed and equipped in double quick time. The government was then inducted into it.

Since then, the powerful forum has worked smoothly. In essence, the ultimate decision on the easing of the lockdown combines the prime minister's decision with the NCOC's recommendation which in turn is based on the conclusions drawn by the experts and commanders that populate the forum. On the surface at least, there...