Press Releases - Global economic conditions survey shows recovery in confidence in q3 but a 'weak and precarious' global economy.

A global survey of senior accountants reveals an improvement in optimism in Q3 after a torrid first half of the year which saw confidence at record lows. Activity measures, such as orders, capital spending and employment, also improved in the latest survey but only modestly - they remain at low levels consistent with the global economy operating well below the pre-COVID-19 level into 2021.

Specific COVID-19 related questions also show increasing expectations from respondents that significant economic recovery will be pushed well into 2021.

But GECS Q3 comes with stark warning signs as results point to the weak and precarious state of the global economy in the latter part of 2020.

Commenting on the findings, Michael Taylor, ACCA's chief economist says: 'Despite the jump in confidence, the overall message from the GECS is still one of weakness with the global economy on course this year for its largest peace time contraction since the 1930s.'

The report Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) that also includes responses from Pakistan, jointly published by ACCA (Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMAA(r) (Institute of Management Accountants) reveals:

Global confidence jumped to a three-and-a-half year high, although this reflects the change in confidence compared with June when many economies were in varying degrees of lockdown.

There was a slight reduction in concerns that customers and suppliers may go out of business, but they remain at extremely high levels

The orders indices in North America and Western Europe recovered by the largest margin in Q3. Lifting of lockdowns in these regions, especially from July onwards has lifted their economies and the orders balance reflects this and points to continued recovery. There is little variation across regions, with South Asia a relatively weak outlier.

For access to finance the pattern is the same in the latest survey as in June 2020. More generous government support and guarantees mean that firms in North America and Western Europe have better access to finance than those in Emerging Markets.

Expectations of substantial economic recovery have shifted decisively towards later in 2021 over the last three months. Over 60 per cent of respondents in Western Europe are now of this view, and more...