JS Securities Limited - JS Research.

Karachi -- September 16, 2022 (PPI-OT)

Cement: Dissecting the much-touted reconstruction demand

We dissect possible post-floods path of cement demand. While near term uptick due to private reconstruction and end of monsoon is likely, we take cue from 2010 floods to estimate quantum and timing of broad-based reconstruction demand.

As per data available to date, ~580k houses have been fully damaged due to floods. Looking at 2010 trends, some caveats are worth considering while estimating reconstruction led demand: 1) not all damaged homes were 'pucca' (fully built); 2) the quantum of houses rebuilt would be less than 100%; 3) some of the...