JS Securities Limited - JS Research.

Karachi -- June 11, 2021 (PPI-OT)

The much needed surprise - FY21 Economic Survey Highlights

With International Financial Institutions expecting Pakistan to grow by 1.5% - 2% in FY21, the Ministry of Finance has reported the country's FY21P GDP growth to clock in at 3.9% (FY20: -0.5%). This is against the initial target that was set at 2.1%.

We expect actual GDP growth for the year to cross 4.5%, as LSM growth (contributing ~10% to GDP) for 4QFY21 is expected to cross 15% YoY.

Agriculture sector grew by 2.8%, as bumper crop in most of the important crops more than offset the sharp decline witnessed in cotton this year.

Moreover, with cropped area broadly unchanged for the fourth consecutive year, yields of crops such as Wheat, Maize and Sugarcane improved to more than their respective decade high levels.

The key shift in GDP growth came from 3.6% YoY...