Indonesia's economy will surpass Russia's sooner than expected.

In 1890, Russian prince Nicholas Alexandrovich, who would soon become Czar Nicholas II, took a trip across Asia. In February his cruise ships dropped anchor in the Bay of Batavia (modern day Jakarta Bay) on the island of Java. He spent several weeks touring the island, complaining about the heat, and hiking volcanoes. Little could the prince imagine that over a century later the island-and its neighbors-would be poised to leapfrog Russia as one of the largest economies in the world:

In 2026, Indonesia is expected to surpass Russia to become the world's sixth largest economy (in PPP terms)-about two years earlier than if Putin's invasion of Ukraine had never happened. (We reached that estimate by comparing the IMF's growth projections pre- and post-invasion.)

This is not directly a sanctions...