Death by hunger?

Byline: Dr Niaz Murtaza

OPPOSING lockdowns strongly, Imran Khan argues that hunger would kill more Pakistanis than Covid-19. States that have curbed the virus via lockdowns allowed essential activities only and the virus curve fell in eight to 10 weeks. Would such a lockdown kill more Pakistanis from hunger than Covid-19?

An Imperial College study says lockdown would save 200,000 to 300,000 Pakistani lives. A Yale study says lockdowns will save 182,000. Even this lower toll surpasses the combined deaths from our three recent mega crises: terrorism, 2005 quake and 2010 floods. The virus death estimates sans lockdown are clear, credible and huge. But no clear or credible estimate is available for the deaths lockdowns may cause due to hunger or other diseases in Pakistan.

With hard numbers missing, the best source is the opinions of medical bodies, food security experts, and UN and other aid agencies. Some agencies even maintain national disaster early warning systems (DEWS) for hunger and other threats. Medical bodies oppose relaxation. None of the experts/bodies, let alone a majority, has alerted that hunger is widespread or will kill more people than Covid-19. The dissenting voice comes from the head of the National Disaster Management Authority. Some have said this is a personal opinion being expressed by the head of an expert agency with a strong DEWS and technical staff. This reflects the perils of the increased trend under the PTI to give civilian posts to khakis. Clearly, the spectre of hunger deaths stems from politics and not technical analysis.

It's hard to see thousands dying due to famine in present-day Pakistan, which has never had one. Big famine now occurs in major conflict zones like Yemen and Somalia where conflict disrupts work, markets, traditional famine-coping mechanisms and aid. Dealing with hunger in conflict-free zones is easy and common for humans. But we have limited capacity for the complex task of dealing with the unknown traits of Covid-19.

Easing the lockdown before the virus curve falls is risky.

In such novel matters, caution works best. So far, no hunger deaths or even starvation has been reported in Pakistan. But the lockdown has increased poverty. State, aid agencies and media have developed adequate monitoring capacities in earlier eras. So it should be easy to track and help families at risk among the 26 per cent (55 million) Pakistanis who are moderately or severely food-insecure with cash and essential...