A crude comeback in the offing.

Byline: Syed Rashid Husain

CRUDE demand is set to return. None can deny. The real issue is when and to what extent? All this would depend, to a great extent, upon the level of ultimate demand once things get back to the 'new normal' and the level of supply. The availability of storage space could also be another variable in the entire equation. The threat of another spike in pandemic cases would also continue to haunt the matrix. But the focus is on what would be the 'new normal' and would crude demand ever get back to pre-pandemic levels?

Things are beginning to open, slowly but surely. And this is a phenomenon encompassing almost the entire world - from North America to Europe and South Asia including Pakistan. Consequent to this, demand has begun to rise somewhat. This is happening at a point in time when global supplies are beginning to feel the pinch of the unprecedented, coordinated output cuts. This would help put a floor beneath the crude prices. Some analysts though have not yet, given up on the possibility of WTI going below zero, sometime soon. In the meantime, we are getting into a phase of volatility, as indicated by markets strengthening early Thursday and then sliding back.

To bring out one's crystal ball and peep into the future is virtually impossible at this stage. Too many variables are at play. The shape of the post-pandemic 'crude world' is still in the process of being shaped. Yet outlines are beginning to emerge.

Until three months ago, the oil industry was looking at aviation and petrochemicals for continued growth in oil demand for another decade or two, writes Tsvetana Paraskova. The pandemic has altered everything. The aviation industry has been dealt a near-deadly blow, upending all plans for fleet utilisation for years to come.

The pandemic could speed up the arrival of peak oil demand, says Paraskova, indicating the expected growth in global jet fuel demand through 2040, now may not occur. Already, airlines are cutting operations dramatically and are not expected to resume normal operations any time soon. Rystad Energy sees jet fuel demand plunging by 33.6 per cent in 2020 - a fall of at least 2.4 million barrels per day from last year's 7.2m bpd.

'We believe this industry will recover but it will take two to three years for travel to return to 2019 levels and it will be a few years beyond that, for the industry to return to long-term growth trends,' a Boeing executive was quoted as...