Climate and security.

Byline: Aisha Khan

THE year 2020 marks the beginning of a decade witnessing the onset of many changes that will bring focus to the connection between climate change and national security.

The harsh winter spell this year and the associated deaths of more than 100 people are just one of a series of events having a spillover effect on many aspects of life. Fires, floods and drought, here or in other parts of the world, are a clear indication of the scale and scope of the challenges that we face.

Climate change is a living, dynamic and evolving threat that cannot be ignored. To be effective, every development policy and political decision must factor in the science of climate change and project its cyclical, repetitive and multifaceted impacts on social and economic indicators.

So far there is no indication that global temperature increase will be contained within one degree Celsius by 2050. The commitments made in the Paris Agreement are not legally binding; the accord, therefore, cannot be relied on as the international instrument for ensuring compliance. It appears that each country will have to deal with the climate crisis using local resources, capacities and technologies to build adaptive resilience.

Political decisions must factor in the science of climate change.

The internal and external threats of climate conflicts on national security are inseparable. If left unmanaged both will create chaos and instability. Internal peace and stability depend on social harmony and economic opportunity; however, both have come under extreme stress as effects of climate change shrink the resource base against rising demand.

In Pakistan's context, a burgeoning population and widening gap in wealth distribution act as a threat multiplier. The decrease in per capita water availability, unsuitable cropping patterns, poor gender parity, high population growth rate and underdeveloped human capital make it difficult for the state to respond to the impacts of these exponential threat multipliers. Climate hot spots, drought, desertification, floods, disease, increased frequency of natural disasters and subsequent mass movement of people in search of livelihoods are already contributing to societal strife, pitting vested interest groups against each other as they compete for resources, leading to violent conflicts and lawlessness.

South Asia as a region has always been volatile and the recent political developments in the countries bordering Pakistan do not...