Chinese economic growth: A role model for emerging economies.

Byline: Ahsan Nisar

China, officially the People's Republic of China, is the second largest economy in the world and the fastest growing trillion-dollar economy. With a GDP of $15 trillion plus in 2020, it makes up almost 20 per cent of the global economy. When compared on the basis of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), China is the largest economy with a GDP of $27 trillion plus. At present, the size of China's nominal GDP is lesser than that of the US but China is on the path to become a $20 trillion economy by 2024 superseding the US.

Since 1949 till today, China has been ruled by honest, efficient and effective leadership. Among these, Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai, Deng Xiaoping are the most prominent leaders of China. Currently, Xi Jinping is spearheading China towards economic supremacy. Xi was elected President of China on 14th March 2012. He has brought massive changes in China's traditional economic and political policies. He has overhauled the Chinese economy on technical grounds. Moreover, he has interlinked China with the rest of the world which is making it more politically and economically powerful culminating it into a major economic clout. The influence of Chinese global leadership rests on the following four premises:

* Military hard power that can be projected in the South and East China Seas and potentially beyond

* Continued economic growth above 5% and advances across 4th industrial revolution technologies

* Other forms of coercive power - debt leverage, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), disinformation, cyber infiltration and intellectual property theft, regime capture and biological warfare etc.

* Ability to influence global institutions, standards and norms of behavior in line with preferences

Based on the above, some of the key features of how the geopolitical order will look in the 2030 are as follows:

1. The relative influence of the US and China and their interaction would play a dominant role in defining the international landscape in key regions around the world after the pandemic. The relative recovery of both countries from COVID-19 and the degree of their weakening or strengthening as a result will play a significant role in shaping the future geopolitical landscape.

2. Under no scenario, cooperation or positivity is expected under US-China relationship, though cooperation is possible on select areas of shared global interests where US power and influence equaled or was greater than that of China.

3. The US could find...