China's economic swings: A look at 2022 and beyond.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, China experienced a significant economic downturn due to strict Covid-19 restrictions and a decline in the property market. These measures were part of the Zero-Covid Policy. In 2021, China's annual GDP growth was 8.1%, but in 2022, it dropped to 3.0%, falling below the official target of approximately 5.5%. This was the second slowest economic growth rate since 1976, surpassing the 2.2% growth in 2020 after the initial impact of Covid-19. In 1976, China faced negative economic growth of 1.6%, marking the end of the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976). The year was marked by a leadership crisis following the deaths of Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai and Chairman Mao Tse-Tung in January and September, respectively. This event led to a power struggle between radicals and moderates in the country. Additionally, an earthquake in Tangshan, Hebei on July 28, 1976, further intensified the situation by causing damage to factories, fuel resources, and rail services.

It was one of the worst economic years since the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949. Similarly, the economic slowdown in 2022 coincided with a decline in China's population for the first time since 1961. In that year, China experienced the end of the Great Famine, a period from 1959 to 1961 characterized by severe food shortages. The Great Leap Forward campaign, initiated by Chairman Mao during the second five-year plan (1958-1963), aimed to transform China from an agrarian economy to an industrial one but resulted in famine. China's National Bureau of Statistics has reported a decrease of 850,000 individuals in China's population in 2022. Official sources indicate that 10.41 million people passed away, while 9.56 million were born during that year.

Despite this decline, the People's Republic of China remains the world's most populous country, with a population of 1.41175 billion, slightly surpassing that of India. The decrease in China's population can be attributed to the increasing number of deaths among the elderly population and a decline in the birthrate. Efforts by officials to address this issue, such as incentivizing families to have more children or relaxing the one-child policy, have not yielded significant results. This population decline is expected to continue over the long term, which could have significant implications for both the People's Republic's economy and the global economy as a whole. According to UN experts, the...