China making precursors that fuel US opioid crisis.

China's rapid economic growth over the past two decades has enabled it to extend its economic influence in Latin America, largely due to the absence of a counter-strategy from the USA. Initially, Washington perceived Beijing's expanding presence as mere economic diversification and thus not a threat to hemispheric or U.S.-Latin American security and military relations.

However, more recently, the USA has started to perceive China's commercial activities in the region as potentially detrimental, especially concerning US access to rare earth elements, allied port security, and 5G technology. Simultaneously, China's economy has entered a period of secular decline, and the USA is actively pursuing strategies to shift its supply chain away from China.

The central question is whether Mexico City and Bogota will align with Washington's anti-China approach. The answer may hinge on whether the USA is willing to align its counter-narcotics efforts with the evolving strategies taking shape in Mexico and Colombia

Consequently, Mexico is becoming an attractive destination for multinational corporations seeking cost-effective manufacturing near the US market. Moreover, Colombia, which has benefited from Chinese trade and investment for years, has drawn closer to Beijing since the inauguration of President Gustavo Petro in 2022. However, it is now questioning the sustainability of this investment and foreign trade relationship, leading it to consider alternatives such as the USA.

Nevertheless, Washington's aim is not to become an alternative sponsor but to reassert its influence by countering China. To achieve this, the USA faces challenges, with one of the major concerns being the rampant use of fentanyl. In the United States alone, overdose deaths linked to fentanyl were projected to reach nearly 110,000 in 2022 over the past eight years. The Joint Economic Committee of the United States Congress estimates that the opioid epidemic cost the US economy $1.5 trillion in 2020, and left more than 6 million people outside the labour market, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Although fentanyl consumption in Mexico and Colombia is less alarming, it is beginning to gain attention. However, the most immediate concern in these countries revolves around fentanyl production, insecurity, and corruption associated with drug trafficking. Due to its low production cost and synthetic nature, fentanyl production can quickly scale up.

Two Mexican cartels...