Brewing turmoil in Pakistan's backyard.

• Author: Kazmi, Shabbir
• Position: Increasing conflict in Iran-US relations over sanctions

Byline: Shabbir Kazmi

Since Donald Trump administration refused to extend waivers for Iranian oil exports, the United States and Iran have been giving threats and counter threats. In response to the US decision to tighten oil sanctions and push Iranian oil exports to zero, Iran has expressed its determination to resist the US pressure and retaliate, if deemed necessary.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on a visit to New York in late April told the audience at the Asia Society that his country would continue to sell its oil despite the US sanctions and warned that the US should remain ready to face the consequences, if it tries to block Iranian oil export. Zarif also alleged that John Bolton, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed were trying to push the US toward disaster, despite President Donald Trump's pledge to avoid further conflicts.

In private meetings, Zarif reiterated his view that the US wants to exert 'maximum pressure' to force Iran to return to the negotiating table, but warmongers are using pressure to provoke a conflict. Zarif said, "Iran would not accept being bled to death. If pushed too far, it will retaliate against those who are overly confident in their own military capabilities". He apprehended that a war might start over a "planned accident" that could be blamed on Iran.

The US is trying to maximize its pressure on Iran by adding new sanctions on its export of iron, steel, aluminum, and copper. Industrial metals are Iran's second-largest foreign exchange earner after oil and gas. Over the last few days, the turmoil has intensified as the region witnessed mysterious sabotage against tankers in Emirati ports, drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities, and the US deployments of aircraft carriers, bombers and troops in the Arabian Peninsula, along with withdrawal of hundreds of non-essential staff from its embassy in Baghdad.

A question arises; does this saber rattling suggest that a conflict with Iran is imminent or irreversible? The immediate reply is, probably not, as none of the immediate parties to the dispute sees a conflict in its interests now:

* Despite its recent air and naval deployments to the region, the US has not put in place the assets that the military would demand for more than a limited response. The decades-long experience in Iraq and Syria makes clear that such limited campaigns do not lead to significant political results. President Trump acknowledged that, should the...