Art of storming Islamabad.

Six weeks separate the opposition alliance Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) from its planned long march to Islamabad. What was once considered a symbolic event aimed at creating political noise is today an organisational and logistical mega project requiring quasi-military precision and planning. So when PDM embarks on its long march, it will need to have figured out to the last detail the following key aspects of the event.

Numbers: What is the minimum number of people needed for the long march and dharna to have an impact? In the 1990s, similar marches undertaken by Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif had small numbers but those did not matter because these events were more like jalsas in motion that had no specific declared outcomes other than generating heat and forcing the establishment to referee out the conflict. When Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri marched into Islamabad in 2014, they had a few thousand people with them. However, the attrition rate was heavy and by the end of the dharna Imran Khan would be making speeches to an audience of a few dozen. Then Khadim Rizvi of TLP showed through his two dharnas that numbers did not matter if the outcome was to create chaos. PDM will need to decide if it is banking on numbers to inflict pressure or other factors.

Dharna, like war, should be an extension of diplomacy. This is why PDM leaders will need to draw up possible exit strategies before they embark on a march.

Location: This is the other key factor. PTI/PAT crowds camped out on Kashmir (now Srinagar) highway and Aabpara. Their presence choked off this vicinity but did not have a direct impact on life in all other areas of the capital. Then they broke through the barricades into the Red Zone and squatted in and around D-Chowk. This gave them direct access to parliament, Supreme Court, PM House, PTV and the secretariat but it left the city to function fairly normally. The location created problems for people going to these buildings, and it provided a good TV backdrop for Khan and Qadri's speeches, but after the initial attacks on PTV and PM House, the crowds sat around and waited for the then prime minister Nawaz Sharif to resign. He inconvenienced them by not obliging. Khadim Rizvi with his few thousand men opted for Faizabad and choked off most entrances to the capital thereby having a debilitating effect on daily life. Maulana Fazlur Rehman camped his men last October in an open area seven kilometres from the Red Zone. The location...