Afghanistan: Light at the end of tunnel?

Byline: Javid Husain

The Afghanistan peace process is at a critical stage. What happens in the next few weeks in the talks between the Taliban and the Americans will determine whether the country will once again witness durable peace and stability or whether it will continue to be the scene of continued fighting as it has been since 1979 when it was invaded by the Soviet forces. However, even if the Taliban and the Americans are able to reach an agreement, durable peace will be restored in Afghanistan only if and when the Taliban and the Afghan government also reach a peace settlement through an intra-Afghan dialogue. Obviously the dynamics of the two processes, that is, the Afghan-US talks and the intra-Afghan dialogue are vastly different though they are closely interlinked. Also one should not overlook the hurdles in their way. Therefore, despite some positive vibes coming from Doha, the success of the peace process in Afghanistan is far from assured.

Afghanistan has justifiably been called the graveyard of empires. The Soviets disregarded the lessons of history to their detriment by invading Afghanistan and occupying it in 1979. The Soviet military withdrawal in February 1989, after the Afghan jihad lasting for about ten years with the support of the Muslim World and the West, merely validated the folly of invading Afghanistan. It was with good reason that the British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan had earlier given the advice that the first rule of politics is 'Don't invade Afghanistan.' The 1990's was mostly wasted in the internecine fighting among the various Afghan armed groups with Iran supporting the Northern Alliance and Pakistan putting its weight behind the Taliban who were overwhelmingly Pashtuns. The proxy war and the tussle for the domination of Afghanistan between Pakistan and Iran, who again were guilty of ignoring Afghanistan's history, predictably resulted in a failure for both sides with the tragedy of 9/11 and the US invasion of Afghanistan in October, 2001.

It was hoped that the US with the advice of its reputable scholars and think tanks would avoid repeating the mistakes of the Soviets, Pakistan and Iran in dealing with Afghanistan but unfortunately the hope remained illusory. The apparently easy victory of the US and overthrow of the Taliban government in Afghanistan caused hubris in Washington which made it oblivious of the lessons of the Afghan history leading to the Afghan quagmire in which it has been bogged...