2020: a make-or-break year.

Byline: Abbas Nasir

WITH 2019 drawing to a close, all political parties, governing and opposition, are claiming 2020 as the year Lady Luck will smile on them and them alone. Let's examine whose optimism appears more rooted in reality.

Prime Minister Imran Khan has said the new year will see his government consolidating what he perceives as gains already made and the economy will pick up so he would be able to embark on delivering on some manifesto promises such as low-cost housing and new jobs.

Its first 18 months in power have seen the government limping from one crisis to another. The IMF-mandated contraction of the economy and devaluation has put severe pressure on the poorest segments of society which have had to deal with widespread job losses and double-digit inflation.

The macroeconomic scenario the government is painting for the next year is predicated mainly on the shrinking current account deficit. Apart from that, all projections of growth rate suggest it would be no better than it was this year so even here there seems to be an element of wishful thinking.

The one area where the government appeared in no mood to compromise was in its 'anti-corruption' campaign. That now seems to be running out of steam as many opposition leaders, after incarceration in NAB, ANF, FIA cases, are now getting bailed out as the prosecution is floundering.

Its first 18 months in power have seen the government limping from one crisis to another.

In addition to hounding the opposition, NAB's impartiality is now also coming under the microscope. A secretly recorded video of the chairman may have left him compromised. It appeared on the channel of a top PTI supporter. The anti-corruption body so far has not taken any action against key members of the government when it said it would in some cases which are public knowledge.

The government's latest ordinance curtailing NAB's powers is ostensibly a gesture to win over support of the business community and the civil service whose role in kick-starting a near-moribund economy is crucial. It isn't clear if this is the incentive the captains of commerce, industry wanted.

All this does not augur well for the PTI but if the devotion of its supporters on social media is truly indicative of wider support, then the party has still nothing to worry about. Its devotees remain unchanged in their commitment to Imran Khan and support each of his decisions unconditionally.

This may be a big plus but does not in itself...