US-Afghan govt peace talks too little, too late.

The US wants out, the Kabul government fears losing control and the Taleban must have doubts about its ability to seize much more. When President Donald Trump goes to the polls in November, he clearly wants to tell the American people he has ended the "forever wars" that have become the longest foreign conflicts for the US military. Whether that will truly be the case, however, is a rather different matter. At the heart of that strategy is this month's tentative peace deal between the United States and Taleban, signed after years of often strained and sometimes secret diplomacy. Under that deal, the US is scheduled to withdraw almost all its 12,000 forces from Afghanistan over the next 14 months - a date that, perhaps through no coincidence, extends well into the next presidential term. That the six months between now and the US polls will see a significant withdrawal of US forces, therefore, does not seem in doubt. (Washington says it plans to pull out a first batch of 8,600 troops within 135 days of signing the deal.) Much less certain, however, is the fate of the next stage of negotiations with the Taleban, due to meet Afghan government representatives for peace talks in Norway on March 10. Whether that gathering will happen, however,

is in itself uncertain - the Afghan government is decidedly lukewarm on a pledge to free Taleban prisoners stipulated in the accord. Should that deal unravel, it would be another reminder of the very different priorities Washington and the Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani. For the United States, particularly under Trump, what truly happens in the country is scarcely a priority, provided it does not again become a haven for militants such as Daesh or Al Qaeda. Those in charge in Kabul, in contrast, remain in a knife fight for control of a country in which the government only truly holds the cities while vast swathes of the countryside remain under Taleban domination. Leaving aside the broader geopolitics, the greatest argument for a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan remains that after...