The upward spiral of the energy bill.

Pakistan's electricity sector is in deep trouble. The recent nationwide blackout on the night of January 9 is just another reminder of the crisis facing the collapsing power sector. But for an average consumer, the most visible impact of this crisis has been their ever-increasing electricity bill.

A report published last week suggested that the government had decided to raise the base electricity tariff by Rs1.90 per unit from this month. The announcement, it is said, has been delayed in view of the increase in the fuel prices. The power price increase is agreed to bring the International Monetary Fund back on the table for the revival of the suspended $6 billion economic stabilisation deal with the multilateral lender.

The power-sector regulator, National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra), had recommended a base tariff hike of Rs3.30 per unit and the prime minister had agreed - as if he had a choice - last month to implement it and pass it on to the consumers in phases. Thus the differential will be passed on to the households in the next quarter.

Indeed, the present government cannot be blamed for the current situation. The previous governments since the 1990s should share most of the blame. Likewise, no single factor or policy or decision can be held responsible for the electricity prices we are forced to endure today; it is rather an outcome of many different policies, pressures and decisions at every step of the power supply chain.

Unless NTDC revises its future projections and focuses more on cheaper and sustainable renewables, the chances of reduction in electricity prices will likely remain low even in the future

Some like to selectively blame the expensive agreements with independent power producers as others look for the devil in the imported fuel used for generation. Still others link the ever-increasing prices to the combination of massive transmission and distribution losses and widespread theft and so on. But the question is: do we have what it takes to reduce the exorbitant costs of power generation, transmission and distribution to make electricity affordable for the households and industry, as well as stop the build-up of the circular debt, which has already crossed the Rs2.3 trillion mark? Apparently, the planners appear devoid of this capacity.

Take the example of the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2047 developed by the National Transmission and Despatch Company back in April last year. A...

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