The transition of power.

AuthorButt, Imtiaz Rafi

Byline: Imtiaz Rafi Butt

As of 2019, the United States remains the dominant superpower of the world. It controls the most formidable army and enjoys influence across all continents in matters of governance, economics and diplomacy. But according to leading political experts, the American influence is largely based on inertia from previous decades. The policies that were the corner stones of development and hegemony have been weakened and the mantle of progress and dominance have been taken over by the people of China.

The GDP of China, when viewed through purchasing power parity has surpassed that of United States. As the economic gap shrinks, there are bound to be fears of loss and decline. The overtaking of power is a tough question, one that will be answered in a short span of years between America and China. Could it lead to a catastrophic war? Is the world doomed towards another devastating war-like scenario reminiscent of the World Wars or is there any alternative left? The time to ponder is now.

In September, 2019, Donald Trump proudly announced that due to his tariff hikes and financial maneuvering, there have been around 3 million job losses in China. This is a mere display of the underlying perspective that the US is moving towards its Asian counterpart. Conversely, the Chinese army repeated reiterates that it is ready to go to any lengths to defend the boundaries of China and has the full capability of dealing with the US threat near and around South China Sea and Korean peninsula. It appears, the world is entering into a situation that has existed between rising states in the past.

As early as Greeks, it was identified by a historian named Thucydides. As he studied the rise of Athens versus the city state of Sparta, he formulated it as the 'Thucydides's Trap'. He concluded that whenever one great nation replaces another in terms of power and dominance, the fear and self-interest of the contesting nations leads to a catastrophic war. Even after 2500 years, the same principle is being highlighted by political thinkers like Henry Kissinger who was the initial Secretary of State when the United States made its contact with the People's Republic of China(PRC) in the 1970s. Kissinger validates that Thucydides's Trap clearly exists between USA and China and there is little hope to avoid it.

In the last 500 years, in a transition of power between great nations, 12 out of 16 times, the outcome has been a massive war. A thorough analysis...

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