The sixth wave.

ARE we in the midst of the sixth wave of the Covid-19 global pandemic?

This question is ubiquitous these days. However, while the question may have journalistic value the reality is that cases have indeed started increasing, whether or not you call it a sixth wave. More important than naming waves is to understand what is going on and how to address it. What timely steps the government should take and what protective measures the people should adopt.

Cases are increasing in Pakistan though their total number is still relatively small. At the time of writing on Tuesday, June 28, Pakistan had a total of 333 confirmed cases in the last 24 hours. This number does not look like a lot, but in the previous week, on Tuesday, June 21, the same number was 113, that is, cases had almost tripled in one week. On Tuesday, June 14, however, the new cases over the last 24 hours were a mere 54. In two weeks, the number of cases increased more than six times in Pakistan.

Thankfully though, a growing number of cases has not meant more hospitalisations, at least not until now. There is generally a lag of two to three weeks in hospitalisation growth following an increase in the number of cases. But this was when there were few or no vaccinations.

Today, more than 85 per cent of the eligible population of Pakistan, ie those above 12 years of age, are fully vaccinated with two doses and 21.7 million have received a booster dose. These are impressive numbers, especially when all the vaccines had to be imported. The former PTI government deserves full marks for this.

Vaccinations combined with immunity acquired through infection provide a major barrier against the virus, especially preventing illness severe enough to require hospitalisation. So, unlike the first three waves, this time around, even in the case of the high spread of infection, hospitalisations are expected to be much fewer than before.

Let me quickly add though that no vaccine provides 100pc immunity. We do come across people who were vaccinated and still get infected - many actually. But it is also true that the infection usually remains mild and does not advance to moderate or serious illness. Vaccination is critically important but not a perfect barrier against the infection.

Pakistan may be prepared to handle Covid-19 but this should not mean complacency.

With the benefit of hindsight, having dealt with five waves, and with a vigilant National Command and Operation Centre now more firmly...