The need to prioritise agricultural development.

Pakistan's agriculture performance has generally been mediocre. Growth has averaged 2-3% over the last few decades as compared to a 4-5% growth needed to meet overall economic targets. Crop and livestock yields are lower than other comparable countries. The output of several key products are below domestic needs and necessitate imports while exports are well below potential.

One of the underlying reasons for poor agriculture performance is the inequitable access to resources and in particular a highly skewed pattern of land ownership. Some 2% of farmers own 45% of all agriculture land with 98% owning the remaining 55%. Pakistan's farm economy is dominated by the 7.4 million small holders who cultivate less than 12.5 acres. The skewed land holding pattern translates directly into major imbalances in power, access to government services, and to other productive resources such as water, credit and technology. For example, irrigation water flows disproportionately to larger farmers who often overuse or even waste water while small holders, especially those located at the tail end of irrigation channels, get little and unreliable water.

Public services, such as those for animal heath, are often provided free and on a priority basis to large farmers and commercial dairy units while small livestock holders have to 'incentivise' government animal health workers to visit their sick animals. Government subsidies mostly go to large famers and credit flows predominantly to big landlords, commercial livestock units and processing units. These inequities not only lead to poor overall performance but also high levels of rural poverty with severe consequences on the well-being of large swathes of the population. And with climate change, things could rapidly get worse.

Are there ways to get out of this situation? One way forward is through a movement of labour out of rural areas. Such out-migration allows consolidation of land into larger and more efficient farms. These provide better incomes to those who remain, and allows them to save and invest in productivity enhancement. Migration also fundamentally changes the power balance in rural areas by changing the land:labour ratio. This process has happened in most developed countries and more recently in several rapidly growing Asian countries. In China, the percentage of people employed in agriculture dropped from about 60% at the start of the 1990s to about 25% at present. Similarly, in Vietnam, the percent...