Testing for the virus.

LOOK at the number of tests for the coronavirus that have been performed around the country and the number of positive cases and you will notice something. Take the number of positive cases as a percentage of total tests done in each province and you will discover that there is wide variation in this percentage among the provinces. More specifically, Punjab scores the lowest percentage whereas KP, Sindh and Balochistan are more or less the same. This is meaningful because the testing capacity of the country is limited whereas the demand for tests is rising as more and more people come to be infected, and especially if we are talking of pivoting towards 'smart lockdowns' because those are underpinned by a massive and rigorous testing regime. Without smart testing, you cannot have a smart lockdown.

Here is the percentages breakdown between the provinces, based on May 25 data from the World Health Organisation Situation Report for Pakistan. Punjab scores 9.9 per cent, meaning this is the percentage of people who have tested positive from among the entire population of those who have been tested. Sindh scores 14.4pc, KP comes in at 15.3pc and Balochistan at 16pc. Islamabad reports its data separately and scores 4.9pc. For the country as a whole, the percentage is 11.75pc.

What this percentage tells you is how well the provinces are using the limited testing capacity available to them. A higher percentage means the criteria to determine who gets tested and who doesn't are rigorous and being applied properly. A lower percentage means the criteria are either too loose, or not being applied correctly.

If we are to move towards 'smart lockdowns', two things will be necessary. First, the number of tests being performed on a daily basis will need to rise sharply. Currently, as per the same WHO report, Pakistan's current testing rate is 2,227 per million, and it has 262 reported cases per million. This is slightly better than Mexico, Egypt and Indonesia, to take three examples, but considerably below Brazil and Argentina, where tests per million are 3,461 and 2,956 respectively.

The old reflex to carve out islands of respite for the elites from all pressing public health problems is starting to kick in.

Second, after raising the number of tests per million sharply, it will be necessary to apply rigorous criteria as to who gets tested and who does not. Notice, for example, how Islamabad scores 4.9pc - which is far below the national average - for its...

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