Security projections for 2021.

PROJECTING trends of insecurity and violence is not an easy task especially for countries like Pakistan where security challenges are complex and state responses cursory and sporadic. Against all prognostic fears over the past year, the security situation in the country remained relatively stable for which law-enforcement agencies can take the credit. However, keeping in mind the fast-changing militant landscape, 2021 will be another challenging year, and countering terrorism will remain the top priority of the security forces.

The year 2020 sustained the declining trend in the incidence of terrorist violence in Pakistan that has been ongoing since 2014; the year witnessed a 36 per cent decrease in the number of terrorist attacks as compared to 2019. Contrary to different assessments, even in the time of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic the security landscape of Pakistan did not witness any major shift. However, the frequency and intensity of terrorist attacks slightly increased from May to July, particularly in the North Waziristan district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Again in October, the terrorists stepped up their attacks and that trend continued until the end of the year. Despite the huge dent in the militant infrastructure, the operational capabilities of terrorist groups are still intact and new formations also emerged over the last year, which according to some conventional assessments could negatively affect the security situation in the country.

Tackling religious extremism will remain a low priority for the state.

As in the past several years, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan remained the major actor of instability in 2020 when it was found to be involved in 46 terrorist attacks. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) was the second major lethal group, which perpetrated 19 attacks in the course of the year. The trend shows that the TTP's operational base is shrinking fast as out of the 46 attacks it perpetrated in 2020, as many as 40 were concentrated in KP alone. The TTP is regrouping in the Waziristan and Bajaur districts to create physical space for itself. But so far, even after the merger of several small groups and splinters, there has not been any major shift in the group's operational priorities.

The militant Islamic State group carried out two terrorist attacks last year. However, the group's claiming the killing of 11 Shia Hazara coal miners in Mach early this month was an indication that its Pakistan chapter or an...