Red zone files: Mercury rising.

Health Adviser Dr Zafar Mirza has mentioned the unmentionable: another lockdown. Well, he has dangled the possibility of one if citizens of Pakistan do not behave themselves and follow the Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) announced by the government as their weapon of last resort against the attack of Covid-19.

Has the weapon misfired?

Dr Mirza should know. He has access to information pouring in from all corners of the country and it is this information that - when tallied - paints an overall picture of how bad things are. Till a week ago, things were not that bad. In fact they were so un-bad that the government decided to tell a confused and dazed public that commercial life was ready to make a comeback. It's fine, the government said. Infection hasn't gone away but hunger is as bad, if not worse, than corona. The people nodded. Obviously. They were forced indoors - kind of - all these weeks and were feeling the economic pinch. Plus corona wasn't all that it was made out to be, they thought. And why wouldn't they? From the highest level they were consistently relayed direct and subliminal messages that while corona was serious, it wasn't that serious; that while it was deadly, it wasn't that deadly. Why would citizens not believe their government? Right?

So as the holy month of Ramazan bowed out in favour of Eidul Fitr, citizens broke away their Covid-19 chains and rushed out to breathe in the air of infection-laden liberty. Be careful, said the government as it unbolted the gates and let the crowds out. The citizens were duly warned, of course. They are now responsible for what might happen.

But not much is supposed to happen other than the gradual increase in the number of infected, we are told. Things are under control and there isn't a whole lot to worry, we are told. There is excess capacity in hospitals and the equipment is not under stress, we are told. We can deal with more patients - many more patients - without any reason to panic, we are told.

So why should we panic? Policymakers inside the Red Zone believe from the bottom of their hearts that what they have done is right. They genuinely believe that they have things under control; that the deaths of Covid-19 are far less than feared; that there is something that is keeping the mortality rate surprisingly low that has little to do with lockdowns; and that this provides the government an opportunity to experiment with normalcy.

So why is Dr Mirza issuing a warning anew? Is...