Punjab number game 2.0 - the quagmire continues.

After the Lahore High Court's decision today, ordering a re-counting of votes, excluding those by PTI dissident lawmakers, for the Punjab chief minister's election held on April 16, the numbers game in the province has once again become the focus.

In its verdict, the high court retrospectively applied the Supreme Court's May 17 verdict on a presidential reference seeking interpretation of Article 63-A of the Constitution, which is related to the status of defecting lawmakers. The apex court had said that votes of defecting lawmakers will not be counted in the four instances outlined under Article 63-A.

These four instances are the election of prime minister and chief minister; a vote of confidence or no-confidence; a Constitution amendment bill; and a money bill.

During the April 16 Punjab CM election, Hamza Shehbaz had bagged 197 votes, including 25 from PTI dissidents, four from independents, and one from the lone Rah-i-Haq Party MPA. Five rebel PML-N lawmakers had abstained from voting in favour of Hamza.

The magic number required to show majority in the 371-strong house is 186.

In light of the LHC verdict, once a re-counting of the votes happens tomorrow, Hamza's tally will be trimmed to 172 votes after the 25 votes by PTI dissident lawmakers are excluded.

In that case, as per the high court's order, because Hamza loses his majority, a re-election will take place under Article 130(4) of the Constitution, which means that in this second round of voting, a member does not need to show support of a majority (186 votes) but simply requires more votes than any other candidate to be elected the chief minister.

So, what does the number game tell us now?

Flourish logoA Flourish election chart

It appears that in the run-off election, Hamza Shehbaz will be able to retain his CMship, primarily because he has been able to get back the support of three rebel PML-N lawmakers who had earlier not taken part in the election.

With the addition of these three MPAs...