Pakistan's changing heat map.

THE scorching temperatures and prolonged heatwave in several parts of Pakistan are a reminder of what lies ahead for the country. Jacobabad, Nawabshah and Sibi have emerged amongst the top hottest places in the world with average temperatures recording five degrees Celsius higher than normal.

Read: In Jacobabad, the hottest city on Earth, mothers bear brunt of climate change

The illustrative value of these three districts is important for drawing Pakistan's heat map, which is necessary to determine the trends in crops, yields, local trade, jobs, health, migration, construction designs, school enrolments and drop-outs, and changing electricity demand. The increasing temperatures are irreversible. Many areas of Pakistan are at serious risk unless a series of interventions are strategised and systematic investments in local resilience are made.

One simple way to understand the phenomenon is to compare the temperatures of four cities of Punjab - Rawalpindi, Lahore, Faisalabad and Multan. Each city is about a degree higher than the other, with an overall average temperature difference of about 5AdegC between Rawalpindi and Multan, within the margin of the projected temperatures in global climate models. How disruptive would the changes be on the standard of living index for residents of Rawalpindi if the latter were to become hotter like Multan within a few decades? Prolonged high temperatures are like living permanently in a warmer region, instead of just experiencing the occasional peaks during summer.

While March 2022 was the hottest month in over a century of written records, prolonged high temperatures since March have led to several new local-level weather records. The temperatures in many areas were 10AdegC, or more, above normal, with 62 per cent less rainfall.

Read: Karachi experiences hottest March day on record

This year's dry heat was bad for crops but, mercifully, less lethal for people in the densely populated agricultural regions of Sindh. Trends show that the labour force from Jacobabad, Nawabshah, Sibi and other districts is moving towards Quetta to survive - although livelihood options and economic opportunities in Balochistan are limited. Increasing temperatures cause high evaporation and land degradation, reducing soil moisture and agricultural productivity, as witnessed in the case of Pakistan's favourite mango crop this year.

Increased heat coupled with decreased moisture is said to have reduced mango production and...

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