On A Scale Of USA To China Where Does ASEAN Stand?

Byline: Ayesha Arif

China's steady rise as a comprehensive power to rival the US, and what it may portent for the international order in general and for regional security in particular, has preoccupied the attention of both scholars and policy-makers in the past decade. Debates about the possible trajectory of US-China relations, whether these two super powers will be able to develop a working relationship with each other or whether their interests will inevitably collide, particularly in the ASEAN region, have fed both hopes and anxieties. Graham T. Allison in his book 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides Trap?'

describes that out of 16 cases of rising powers challenging the established powers throughout history, 12 had resulted in wars. He thus cautions that a violent clash between China and the US is a distinct possibility unless both sides take the necessary steps to avert it. While scholars have debated Allison's findings and the extent to which the conclusions drawn from various historical events can be extrapolated to predict future relations between the two nuclear-weapon states in the era of complex economic interdependence, there is little doubt that the current bilateral relations between Washington and Beijing are increasingly marked by strategic rivalry reminiscent of the Cold War.

The trade war launched by President Donald Trump against China and President Xi Jinping's tit-for-tat response has heightened concerns about the increasingly acrimonious relations between Beijing and Washington. In Southeast Asia, there are growing anxieties that ASEAN and its 10 member states may be forced to choose between China and the US. Even more worrying are pressures from these two major powers, quietly or publicly, to the effect that other countries will have to pick sides in the unfolding competition for power and influence between them.

Will Southeast Asian countries then again become pawns and suffer the misfortune of being used as a theatre for proxy wars in this new Cold War? It was not that long ago that Southeast Asia was divided ideologically between the anti-communist and pro-communist camps, while internally many Southeast Asian countries battled over different ideologies and external alignments that dominated the Cold War. One should not forget that the conflation of internal political polarizations with super power's rivalry in Southeast Asia during the earlier Cold War manifested in a long drawn-out hot war...