Narratives of power.

Byline: Sakib Sherani

ONE of the most enduring, and baffling, constants in Pakistani politics is how the seemingly 20/20 vision of politicians with regard to economic management while in opposition degenerates to myopic near-blindness when in government. The clarity with which they see through the shenanigans of the official narrative on economic performance and the perils of economic policies being pursued is somehow lobotomised as soon as they themselves enter the corridors of power - and start singing the same official tune. (This applies to many senior civil servants too. They parrot 'all is well' ('sub acha hai') while in government, and only regain clear vision upon retirement!).

The PTI government has disappointingly started to sing from the very same hymn sheet the party criticised as 'false' just over a year ago. The following are some of the most common, and durable, official narratives the government should be wary of, rather than adopting wholesale.

The first is mistaking post-crisis stabilisation for a durable economic turnaround. Given the nature, design and tenure of IMF-led programmes, they typically treat the secondary infection rather than cure the underlying disease of the patient. Pakistan's previous IMF programme running from 2013-16 abundantly reflects this home truth. Characterised as a resounding 'success' by the PML-N government, it received a ringing endorsement from the IMF itself. Yet, it proved a fleeting interlude between two Fund programmes for the country, which tipped into a predictable balance-of-payments crisis less than two years after the end of the IMF programme.

A related pitfall is mistaking 'entry level' reforms for the deeper structural and institutional restructuring required. A case in point is the recent jubilation over the jump in Pakistan's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business indicator. Another is presenting the sharp spike in registered ('active') taxpayers as a fruit of tax reform when it was entirely due to a change in the definition and treatment of inactive taxpayers already on the tax rolls.

The government should avoid singing from a flawed hymn sheet.

Perhaps the biggest single source of blindsiding any government on the state of the economy and its own economic performance is none other than the narrative of IFIs. The ringing endorsement from the IMF in 2013-16 referred to here was echoed by the World Bank. Eventually, since the global capital markets follow the lead of...