A Nail-Biter.

This election will be a nail-biter, with polls suggesting that Democrats will have difficulty maintaining their slim control of both houses of Congress. In addition to the president's low approval ratings-an indicator of a dissatisfied electorate, there are other issues at work. In the House of Representatives, Democratic prospects never looked promising. The decennial redistricting congressional maps eliminated some Democratic seats and created enough new 'safe' Republican districts to give the GOP a structural edge in the House. Despite some expressions of Democratic hope or bravado, their retaining House leadership is quite unlikely.

The Senate is a different story. Of 34 seats being contested-13 held by Democrats, 21 by Republicans-10 are considered vulnerable, five in each party. With an evenly split Senate, all Democrats must do is break even to maintain leadership. Two months ago, Democrats appeared to have an advantage, with stronger Senate candidates and polls showing that their issues were resonating with voters. Republicans had nominated a few far-right, Trump-endorsed 'election deniers' with less-than-exemplary resumes. Democrats seemed likely to hold onto four of their five vulnerable seats, while flipping one or two currently Republican seats.

In recent weeks, however, the situation has changed and polling shows tightening contests. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent by campaigns, parties, and outside groups, painting these elections in the starkest terms, with both sides preying on fear and blame. For Republicans: fear of inflation, blaming Democrats for high gas and food prices; fear of crime, blaming Democrats for criticisms of policing; and fear of out-of-control immigration, blaming Democrats for supporting 'open borders' and the undocumented.

For Democrats: fear that Republicans will ban all abortions; blaming Republicans for blocking gun control legislation; and fear that democracy is at risk from election-denying Trump supporters defending the January 6th insurrection and making it harder to vote. The obscene amounts spent advertising these messages nationwide have deepened the partisan divide, exacerbating our polarised political environment, and played to the advantage of Republicans.

Two recent polls are instructive. The first, from NYT/Siena College, showed that since July 'the share of voters citing the economy, inflation, crime, and immigration as the...

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