Mismatch of renewables.

Only 15 per cent - or 2,100 megawatts - of the planned hydropower capacity of 14,000MWs by 2030 is expected to come online in time, with the cost overruns estimated to go up from the current $31 billion to $49-61bn, says the Pakistan Renewable Energy Coalition (PREC).

Out of the planned hydropower capacity 51pc has achieved financial closure, but only 39pc had begun physical construction as of September 2022. The fact sheet also mentions that almost 70pc of the pipeline capacity requires partial or complete funding by either the Water and Power Development Authority or provincial government bodies.

The coalition, a group of allied organisations and individuals assisting in accelerating the growth of renewables in the country's energy mix, is apprehensive that the delays in pipeline realisation are likely to increase power outages and load shedding in the country, prompting a switch back to the fossil-fuel power to bridge the shortages.

Moreover, Pakistan and the government's hydropower development wing have been downgraded by all three global credit rating agencies: Moody's, Fitch and S and P, increasing the likelihood of delay in implementing hydropower projects.

Industry analysis shows that it is not economically viable to select hydro plants for the next 10 years since solar and wind are cheaper options

The hydropower pipeline is also becoming vulnerable to extreme weather patterns and climate change, the effects of which have been seen across the globe in Norway, France and China in the form of drying up of rivers and lower reservoir levels. In Pakistan, too, the early onset of summers saw record-breaking temperatures and low reservoir levels.

In its comments on the Integrated Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2022-31, the coalition has suggested that the plan, updated annually by the National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC), should provide more clarity and detail on cost mismatches in light of historical data and account for costing of renovation/refurbishing, schedule overruns, uncertainty in indexation and contingencies such as experienced in the case of Neelum-Jhelum and Mohmand Dam.

'We request that all such cost considerations should be included and made publicly available to provide further confidence to the stakeholders in the national power planning processes,' it says.

Analysing the latest IGCEP using the PLEXOS Energy Modelling Software, the coalition has pointed out some issues in the national power...