Massive water shortage likely months after unprecedented floods.

ISLAMABAD -- In the coming Kharif season, beginning on April 1, the country is heading towards a 'massive water shortage', somewhere between 27 per cent and 35 per cent, only months after unprecedented floods submerged large swathes of lands across Sindh and southern Punjab, Irsa sources told Dawn.

In view of the higher shortage, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) would be compelled to follow a controversial three-tier water management mechanism for distribution of shares to provinces and lead to rifts among the key coalition partners - PML-N in Punjab and PPP in Sindh.

Informed sources said that two major stakeholders - Sindh and Punjab - were poles apart on water conveyance losses - the quantum of available water that remains unaccounted for and lost to theft, leakage, evaporation or absorbed by soil or canals and could not reach farm lands.

Punjab believes that system losses or conveyance losses were around 7pc and 8pc, given the huge water quantities absorbed by the farmlands in super floods in Rabi season that has just ended, whereas Sindh insists system losses ranged between 35pc and 40pc, particularly in its territories between Chashma and Kotri barrages.

Irsa to finalise estimates of water availability during Kharif season tomorrow

A meeting of Irsa's technical committee held on March 24 could not finalise the estimates of overall water availability for Kharif 2023 mainly because of a wide gap between the federating units on the issue of system losses. The water availability estimates are firmed up on the basis of carryover storage in reservoirs, anticipated rain patterns and resultant river flows and estimated conveyance losses.

The Irsa has now called its advisory committee to meet on Thursday (March 30) to examine water availability estimates made by Irsa's technical committee and other stakeholders particularly Punjab, Sindh and Wapda. The advisory committee to be presided over by Irsa chairman would be physically attended by all the four provincial members, provincial irrigation secretaries and technical experts of Wapda, provinces and Met Office.

Informed sources said the Sindh government would demand water distribution under para-2 of the 1991 water apportionment accord but the Irsa would to continue with three-tier formula for water distribution among the provinces to absorb water shortages in the ongoing Kharif season. Kharif cropping season starts from April-June and lasts until October-December in different parts of...