Large-scale manufacturing shrinks for third month.

ISLAMABAD -- Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) shrank 5.49 per cent in November 2022 over the same month last year, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.

The big industry production contracted for the third consecutive month of the current fiscal year sending fears of major layoffs, especially in the textile sector.

The contraction in industrial output indicates that economic growth will slip further in the next quarter. It is estimated that the second quarter will be more disturbing owing to the suspension of gas supplies to industrial units in winter.

There was a negative growth of 7.7pc in October 2022 and 2.27pc in September 2022 on a year-on-year basis. While a paltry rise of 0.30pc was recorded in August after LSM shrank 1.67pc in July, the first month of the current fiscal year. Between July and November, LSM also posted a negative growth of 3.58pc on a year-on-year basis.However, the LSM grew 3.55pc over October 2022.

Economists have been raising concerns about a slowdown caused by record energy and raw material prices. Moreover, export-based manufacturers have already hinted at a decline in their production due to higher costs of energy and other inputs. The production of 15 sectors shrank and only seven posted marginal rises.

The slowdown started in June when manufacturing activity grew by only 0.2pc compared to the previous month. In the previous fiscal year, large-scale manufacturing grew 11.7pc year-on-year. The production estimate for LSM industries was made using the new base year of 2015-16.

Textile, auto, steel sectors' production dips in November

During the 2021-22 fiscal year, the LSM sector, which accounts for 9.2pc of GDP, dominated the overall manufacturing sector with 74.3pc of the...