Kashmir and geopolitical imperatives.

Byline: Imran Malik

The world is gradually but surely transitioning to an increasingly multipolar mode. The spheres of influence of global powers are evolving rather meaningfully.

The US is a power in retreat, as evidenced by its withdrawal from Syria and Afghanistan. That will leave it without a footprint in mainland Asia from Syria to South Korea. Russia has moved decisively into Syria and Iran while China has made ingresses into Pakistan and Iran. Russia is also making important inroads with Turkey (NATO member), the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (a US ally) and Pakistan (an erstwhile US ally) while China has also engaged Saudi Arabia and will eventually incorporate Afghanistan into its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Belt-Road Initiative (CPEC-BRI). Thus, the Greater Middle East Region (GMER) sans Israel and the GCC and South-Central Asian Region (SCAR) are increasingly coming under Chinese and Russian spheres of influence. US' status as the undisputed global economic superpower is under threat by a rampaging China as well, as it positions itself to dominate the world economy through its epic BRI.

All global powers, however, have abiding national interests in engaging India. The US, desperate for some foothold on mainland Asia, has mustered India as a strategic partner and ostensibly as its sole plenipotentiary in mainland Asia. Japan and Australia (Quad Alliance members) are too far out in the Pacific Ocean Region to directly influence events in mainland Asia or the Eurasian Heartland. Following its oft-employed strategy of 'offshore balancing' the US would like to pitch India against China to contain, manage and circumscribe the latter's rise and expanding sphere of influence. Russia has massive, longstanding and continuing investments in defence and nuclear power plant deals with India while Indo-China trade is hovering around the 100 billion USD mark. India will be hard-pressed to pick and choose and will probably do neither. It will endeavour to milk all three cows simultaneously.

Like the US, India too is in a state of limbo, unsure and uncertain of its future roles at the regional and global levels. It can either hitch itself to the US and have greatness thrust upon itself, continue on its policy of contrived and assumed non-alignment or be realistic and join up with the Sino-Russian surge in Asia and become part of a competing pole to the US-led West's. If and whenever it happens, it will be a monumental decision with colossal...

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