JS Securities Limited - JS Research.
Karachi -- September 22, 2022 (PPI-OT)
Aug-22 CAD at US$700mn; IMF receipts lead BOP surplus
Current account deficit reported a 4-month low in Aug-2022, clocking in at US$700mn (-42% MoM) over higher remittances.
For perspective, the last 12-month run rate has averaged at US$1.5bn.
With that, lower CAD was supported by a higher Financial account surplus (IMF receipt of US$1.2bn), leading to a surplus in Balance of Payments for Aug-22.
We estimate CAD for FY23 to clock in at US$13bn (-3% of GDP), excluding any impact of floods. While we await further clarity on flood losses, our preliminary estimates suggest pressures of US$3-4bn from higher food and textile imports.
Higher remittances reduce CAD quantum to US$700mn
Current account deficit reported a 4-month low in Aug-2022, clocking in at US$700mn (-42% MoM). For perspective, the last 12-month run rate has averaged at US$1.5bn. The lower number came in as Pakistan witnessed higher sequential remittances.
Moreover, trade balance also remained flat as higher exports managed to balance the increase witnessed in imports.
With a lower base of July (lower textile exports on interrupted energy supply), exports increased 23% MoM, while Imports expansion was limited to 8% MoM over decline in fuel imports this month. With that, lower CAD was supported by a higher financial account surplus, leading to a surplus in Balance of Payments in August.
The higher financial account surplus was on account of IMF receipt of US$1.2bn, leading to total Financial account surplus of US$1.2bn. For the cumulative period, the Current Account Deficit...
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