India's weaponisation of the Indus Water Treaty.

India's recent pitch to 'modify' and 'amend' the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) without offering any specifics has been viewed with immense concern by Islamabad. The Indus water is Pakistan's lifeblood as 70% of rural Pakistan depends on the Indus River and any drastic unilateral changes by Delhi will escalate tensions between India and Pakistan.

A key perspective on the latest IWT announcement is to understand exactly what type of 'modifications' Delhi is seeking, which have not been specified. If the 'amendment' is linked to the dispute settlement process, over which India has qualms it might be reconciled. A major reason the IWT stood the test of time is due to its resilient dispute settlement. This itself becomes a bone of contention for Delhi revealing mala fide spoiler intent. With only one party (India) seeking modifications, the IWT now faces a protracted litmus test.

If however, as Pakistani hydrologists suspect, India seeks changes in the 'river use sharing protocols' then major escalations are imminent. As an upstream riparian state, India provocatively builds controversial hydroelectric plants to prevent water from flowing westwards and downstream into Pakistan. India's intransigent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government has been threatening to 'modify' the IWT for years. If 'modify' implies 'divert major waters away from Pakistan' things will be dire for Pakistan. Islamabad must nip this in the bud and deal most effectively with this ticking conundrum.

Under the IWT's status quo, Pakistan and India are each allotted control over 3 rivers, the Western ones are under Pakistan`s control and the Eastern ones are under India's authority. Pakistan remains the lower riparian state, meaning the more vulnerable of the two, rendering Pakistan's causes for concern ever-more legitimate. To address this vulnerability, the IWT, at present, allocates 80% of the total Indus Basin River flows to Pakistan. Pakistan's major concern remains how India flagrantly withholds water from canals that flow into Pakistan as it did in 1948. India previously delayed Pakistan's building of canal systems for the utilisation of Western rivers.

An intergovernmental Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague currently hears a dispute between Pakistan and India on the latter's illegal Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects contravening the IWT. The Kishanganga project encroaches upon the River Jhelum whereas the Ratle courses through the Chenab River over...